Calculated
DCF
Free cash flow, growth, discount rate, and terminal growth form an intrinsic value range.
149.17 USD256.33 USD345.09 USD
+15.56%
256.33 USDCurrent price is 15.6% above the base model value.
O
TechnologySemiconductor Equipment & MaterialsUnited States
Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) Valuation Assumptions
Review Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) valuation assumptions across intrinsic value, DCF, reverse DCF implied growth, EV/EBITDA, P/FCF, and financial trends.
NYQ · US · USD
Latest price296.22 USD
30D+36.88%
Price vs model median+996%Model median is the median base output from applicable absolute models, excluding Reverse DCF.
Quick answer
What growth is the market currently pricing into ONTO?
At 296.22 USD, TickerVal's reverse DCF setup implies roughly 17.9% annual FCF growth for 10 years for ONTO, using the current normalized FCF base, a 9.5% discount rate, and 3.0% terminal growth. The rest of the page shows valuation assumptions, model differences, and source-data context for research reference.
What price implies
What does the current price imply?
At 296.22 USD, the model implies roughly 17.94% annual FCF growth for 10 years, with required long-term operating margin near 14.3% and terminal growth around 3%. This module is a research reference.
Implied FCF CAGR17.94%
10-year Reverse DCF scenario
Required long-term operating margin14.3%
Five-year median × 0.95
Implied terminal growth3%
From current model assumptions
Discount rate assumption9.5%
Estimated from current sector rules
Adjust assumptions+
Adjust assumptions
Move assumptions to see how the current price implied conditions change.
Forecast horizon10Y
Historical implied expectations
How does today's implied growth compare with history?
Calculated from selected historical prices and current normalized FCF assumptions, not a full point-in-time backtest.
Current implied FCF CAGR17.9%
5Y monthly median5.52%
Current vs 5Y median+12.38 pts
Showing 8 of 14 report price anchors
| Report price anchor | Price date | Anchor price | Implied FCF CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1-2026 | 2026/03/31 | 205.07 USD | 13.02% |
| FY2026 | 2026/01/05 | 178.18 USD | 11.16% |
| FY2025 | 2025/12/31 | 157.86 USD | 9.55% |
| Q4-2025 | 2025/12/31 | 157.86 USD | 9.55% |
| Q3-2025 | 2025/09/30 | 129.22 USD | 6.9% |
| Q2-2025 | 2025/06/30 | 100.93 USD | 3.61% |
| Q1-2025 | 2025/03/31 | 121.34 USD | 6.06% |
| FY2024 | 2024/12/31 | 166.67 USD | 10.27% |
202613.71%
Avg 15.08% · Samples 5
20256.51%
Avg 6.57% · Samples 12
202411.9%
Avg 12% · Samples 12
20235.28%
Avg 4.73% · Samples 12
Historical valuation multiples
How have EV/EBITDA and P/FCF changed over the last 5 years?
Annual fiscal-period anchored: month-end prices are paired with the most recent annual fiscal period ending on or before each date, covering the last 5 years (41 monthly samples). Multiples are research references; financial-sector or otherwise non-comparable companies require sector-specific context.
P/E
Market cap divided by reported net income (annual fiscal-period snapshot).
107x
Near median · P40
Current5Y medianTypical range IQR
5Y median26,102x
Current107x · P40
5Y low 17.53xCurrent vs median-99.59%5Y high 89,372x
IQR 31.42–65,739x · 41 monthly samples
P/FCF
Market cap divided by reported free cash flow.
48.68x
Near median · P57
Current5Y medianTypical range IQR
5Y median47.27x
Current48.68x · P57
5Y low 21.36xCurrent vs median+2.99%5Y high 72.48x
IQR 33.21–59.32x · 41 monthly samples
EV/EBITDA
Enterprise value (market cap + debt − cash) divided by EBITDA.
92.56x
Above history · P99
Current5Y medianTypical range IQR
5Y median27.89x
Current92.56x · P99
5Y low 15.28xCurrent vs median+232%5Y high 92.56x
IQR 22.55–49.34x · 41 monthly samples
Month-end historical multiples
A date-friendly view for historical EV/EBITDA, P/FCF, and P/E queries.
Showing 8 of 41 month-end samples
| Month-end | Price | P/E | P/FCF | EV/EBITDA | Fiscal period used |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 296.22 USD | 107x | 48.68x | 92.56x | 2026-01-03 |
| 2026-04-30 | 295.06 USD | 106x | 48.49x | 92.18x | 2026-01-03 |
| 2026-03-31 | 205.07 USD | 73.88x | 33.7x | 63.38x | 2026-01-03 |
| 2026-02-27 | 215.89 USD | 77.78x | 35.48x | 66.85x | 2026-01-03 |
| 2026-01-30 | 202.05 USD | 72.8x | 33.21x | 62.42x | 2026-01-03 |
| 2025-12-31 | 157.86 USD | 56,875x | 25.94x | 35.17x | 2025-12-31 |
| 2025-11-28 | 143.16 USD | 35,252x | 33.26x | 26.75x | 2024-12-31 |
| 2025-10-31 | 134.96 USD | 33,233x | 31.35x | 25.17x | 2024-12-31 |
Valuation overview
How do the valuation assumptions fit together?
Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) valuation on TickerVal is designed to help readers understand the operating expectations embedded in the current market price. At 296.22 USD, the page brings intrinsic value analysis, DCF outputs, reverse DCF implied growth, EV/EBITDA, P/FCF, and valuation assumptions into one research view within the Technology sector and the Semiconductor Equipment & Materials industry. Instead of treating one model as a final answer, TickerVal compares cash-flow, earnings-power, balance-sheet, and relative-multiple lenses so the differences between models are visible. The reverse DCF view currently shows implied growth of 17.9%, while the model median reference sits at +996% versus the current price. The DCF and reverse DCF sections focus on free cash flow, discount rate, terminal growth, and the long-term growth path implied by the current price. EV/EBITDA and P/FCF provide additional context for capital structure and cash-flow multiples. The financial trends section connects those valuation assumptions back to reported revenue of 1B USD, free cash flow of 300M USD, margins, and balance-sheet facts from public filings. Readers can use the layout to compare assumptions across models before reviewing the underlying source data. This page is intended for transparent research reference, model review, and assumption checking.
Valuation model range vs. current price
Each row shows a model output range, with a vertical line for the current price.
DCFCalculated
149.17 USD-345.09 USD
Earnings Power ValueCalculated
27.03 USD-27.03 USD
Graham NumberCalculated · Limited reference
51.64 USD-51.64 USD
Owner EarningsCalculated · Limited reference
7.12 USD-8.88 USD
Current price reference line
Why do valuation models give different answers?
Different models rely on different financial facts. The status blocks show which lenses fit this page data.
| Model | Fit | Context |
|---|---|---|
| DCF | Suitable | Useful when recurring free cash flow history exists; sensitive to growth and discount assumptions. |
| Owner Earnings | Limited | Latest owner-earnings proxy is an outlier, so this is a limited scenario reference. |
| Reverse DCF | Suitable | Shows the FCF growth implied by current price under stated assumptions. |
| Earnings Power Value | Suitable | Useful for mature operating profit, with limited emphasis on growth. |
| Graham Number | Limited | Works best when EPS and book value are both positive. |
| Dividend Discount Model | Not meaningful | Needs explicit dividend history, which is not included in the current version. |
| Net-Net Liquidation Value | Not meaningful | Requires current asset and liability detail beyond the current data set. |
| PEG | Limited | A quick growth multiple lens when EPS history is positive. |
| EV/EBITDA | Limited | Useful for capital structure context when operating profit is available. |
| P/FCF | Limited | A compact free-cash-flow multiple view for positive FCF years. |
| P/B | Limited | More useful for asset-heavy balance sheets than asset-light companies. |
| P/S | Limited | A revenue multiple lens when profit or FCF is not stable. |
| Peer Comparison | Not meaningful | Standardized peer comparisons are not included in the current version. |
Which valuation models are being calculated?
Hover each model row to inspect formulas and inputs.
Current price296.22 USD
Model median reference27.03 USD
Price vs model median+996%
Price date2026/05/06
27.03 USD27.03 USD27.03 USD
+996%
Calculated
Owner Earnings
Uses net income, D&A, and capex as an owner-earnings proxy.
7.60 USD7.12 USD8.88 USD
7.12 USDThis model is a limited scenario reference for this sector.Adjusted reference: 13.84 USD
Calculated
Reverse DCF
Solves the forward FCF growth rate implied by the current price.
Implied growth17.9%
Current price implies roughly 17.9% annualized FCF growth.
17.9%Current price implies roughly 17.9% annualized FCF growth.
Calculated
Earnings Power Value
Estimates earnings power value without assuming growth.
27.03 USD27.03 USD27.03 USD
+996%
27.03 USDCurrent price is 996.1% above the base model value.
Updated: 2026/05/06
Which financial trends support the assumptions?
Annual financial metrics with switchable views. · Unit: USD
FY2026 · Jan 2026 report14 records
Revenue1B USD
Net income137M USD
Free cash flow300M USD
CapEx29M USD
Operating cash flow328M USD
Valuation basis and non-recurring items
Collapsed by default. Expand to inspect structured one-time items and adjusted figures without making them the primary page focus.
ExpandCollapse
Valuation basis and non-recurring items
Collapsed by default. Expand to inspect structured one-time items and adjusted figures without making them the primary page focus.
A positive amountAfterTax means the item increased reported net income; a negative value means it reduced reported net income. Adjusted net income = reported net income minus total after-tax impact. Valuation defaults to reported figures; adjusted figures are shown to observe one-time-item impact.
| Period | Item | Category | After-tax impact | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/12/31 | Asset sale gain/loss | Asset sale gain/loss | -4M USD | Medium |
| 2025/12/31 | Restructuring and merger costs | Restructuring | -15M USD | Medium |
| 2025/12/31 | Special income/charges | Other | -15M USD | Medium |
| 2024/12/31 | Asset sale gain/loss | Asset sale gain/loss | -218K USD | Medium |
| 2024/12/31 | Restructuring and merger costs | Restructuring | -7M USD | Medium |
| 2024/12/31 | Special income/charges | Other | -7M USD | Medium |
| 2023/12/31 | Asset sale gain/loss | Asset sale gain/loss | -3M USD | Medium |
| 2023/12/31 | Restructuring and merger costs | Restructuring | -3M USD | Medium |
| 2023/12/31 | Special income/charges | Other | -3M USD | Medium |
| 2022/12/31 | Asset sale gain/loss | Asset sale gain/loss | -58K USD | Medium |
| 2025/12/31 | Asset sale gain/loss | Asset sale gain/loss | -2M USD | Medium |
| 2025/12/31 | Restructuring and merger costs | Restructuring | -6M USD | Medium |
| 2025/12/31 | Special income/charges | Other | -6M USD | Medium |
| 2025/09/30 | Asset sale gain/loss | Asset sale gain/loss | -314K USD | Medium |
| 2025/09/30 | Restructuring and merger costs | Restructuring | -3M USD | Medium |
| 2025/09/30 | Special income/charges | Other | -3M USD | Medium |
| 2025/06/30 | Asset sale gain/loss | Asset sale gain/loss | -908K USD | Medium |
| 2025/06/30 | Restructuring and merger costs | Restructuring | -5M USD | Medium |
| 2025/06/30 | Special income/charges | Other | -5M USD | Medium |
| 2025/03/31 | Asset sale gain/loss | Asset sale gain/loss | -602K USD | Medium |
| 2024/12/31 | Asset sale gain/loss | Asset sale gain/loss | -127K USD | Medium |
Ad placement
Which reported financials feed the models?
Financial DetailsShowing latest 5 / 14
| Period | Type | Revenue | Net Income | Adjusted net income | Free Cash Flow | Diluted EPS | Adjusted EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026/01/03 | Annual | 1B USD | 137M USD | - | 300M USD | 2.78 | - |
| 2025/12/31 | Annual | 1B USD | 137K USD | 33M USD | 300M USD | 2.78 | 666 |
| 2024/12/31 | Annual | 987M USD | 202K USD | 15M USD | 214M USD | 4.06 | 295 |
| 2023/12/31 | Annual | 816M USD | 121K USD | 9M USD | 149M USD | 2.46 | 183 |
| 2022/12/31 | Annual | 1B USD | 223M USD | 223M USD | 118M USD | 4.49 | 4.49 |
Where does this data come from?
Open to inspect field-level SEC EDGAR source, filing form, and derived notes.
SEC EDGAR
Where does this data come from?
Open to inspect field-level SEC EDGAR source, filing form, and derived notes.
Frequently asked questions
Quick notes on price-implied expectations, model differences, and source data.
What is Onto Innovation Inc.'s intrinsic value?
Onto Innovation Inc.'s intrinsic value on TickerVal is reviewed through DCF outputs, reverse DCF implied growth, EV/EBITDA, P/FCF, valuation assumptions, and financial trends from public filings.
How is ONTO valued on TickerVal?
TickerVal values ONTO by comparing intrinsic value models, DCF and reverse DCF assumptions, cash-flow multiples, earnings-power references, and reported financial trends.
What does the current stock price imply?
The reverse DCF view estimates the free-cash-flow growth path implied by the current stock price under stated discount-rate and terminal-growth assumptions.
Which valuation models are used?
TickerVal uses DCF, reverse DCF, Owner Earnings, EPV, Graham Number, EV/EBITDA, P/FCF, P/B, P/S, and other model references where the underlying data is available.
Is this investment advice?
No. TickerVal does not provide investment advice, ratings, price targets, or buy/sell recommendations.
Early supporter list
Get notified as TickerVal adds saved assumptions.
Join the research reference list for product updates, model notes, and transparent assumption workflows.
Ad placement